ELECTION CENTRAL NOV 6
DEBATES (reverse chronological order) PLUS inks to debates for Congress and Legislature.
THE GUBERNATORIAL POLLING: Chronology of survey methodologies
PREVIOUSLY IN THIS ELECTION CYCLE; WESTON RESULTS.
July 12 Realtors Debate: http://www.ctn.state.ct.us/ctnplayer.asp?odID=15447
June 11 Realtors Debate: https://www.ctrealtors.com/ctr-tv/
DEM debates (5) for AG hopefulls?
135th District candidates.
Bravo LWV of Weston for presenting this excellent debate for the residents of the 135th District.
Ken Dixon's report on Sacred Heart poll for October.
POLLING WITH A MONTH TO GO...
Lack-luster candidates in D & R lines - polls don't indicate turnout if of "likely voters.".
SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYTICS
ONLINE SURVEY WE REC'D THURSDAY, SEPT. 20
C.B.I.A. Survey of Connecticut Businesses - https://ctmirror.org/2018/09/07/survey-ct-companies-lukewarm-states-economic-future/
Here is the link to Office of Legislative Research on ballot questions: https://www.cga.ct.gov/2018/rpt/pdf/2018-R-0230.pdf
INDEPENDENT PARTY GOES FOR GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE (R)?
Weston leads the way. Primary voter turnout in 4 towns, Southwestern CT. No Parties Party (r)
HOW THE VOTING WENT - CT BALLOT (IN 4th)
FOLLOWED THE PARTY LEAD EXCEPT FOR...THE REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE
PRIMARIES: WHO WON FOR GOVERNOR? Unaffiliated candidates and Minor Party candidates for Governor must collect 7500 signatures verified by Town Clerks.
Someone who can afford it as the good ship "Land of Steady Habits" goes down, we would think...various interest groups (one example) wants to know some answers. "Second Chance Society?"
LT GOV WINNERS (LEFT, DEM, RIGHT, R)
We note that both Party Primaries state-wide stuck to the recommendations of the Conventions (except for GOP Gubernatorial)
LAST WEEKEND BEFORE PARTY PRIMARY: Note that the best candidate performance wins neither - how is Oz doing collecting signatures - is he there yet?
Our call on both Parties' Contests: We use this method - our ranking of candidate performance at debates, by number. final order of finishing results we predict by letter.
Democrats black and white on issues: Regional schools, raise taxes on wealthy...Lamont's answer to: "Best Governor in 30 years?" LOWELL WEICKER
Lamont 2-A. Ganim 1 - B. However, if anyone was actually listening, I suspect suburban Democrats would not turn out. If that is the case...they deserve what they get
WATCH OUT WESTON
Republicans were more entertaining. Can any of these win? Our finishing order prediction above left to right. We missed this!!!
Real results: Stefanowski, Boughton, Stemerman, Herbst, Obsitnik
Our predictions: Herbst 3-C. Boughton 2-A. Obsitnik 5-E. Stemerman 1-B. Stefanowski 4-D. Clearly, this deteriorated to who is a real Republican. I can tell you from experience that GOP Primary voters are real Republicans.
Unaffiliated voters in CT, who do not get to vote in Primaries, IMHO, are those who consider national politics more important than state or local stuff, and are open to voting Republican if they feel threatened on "breadbasket" or personal well-being issues.
WHAT WE HEARD
Party Primaries Tuesday: Democrats Debate, Bambi alarmed by what she hears, listening on CT-N:
- Get rid of town lines. By by "home rule" (not so fast, guys - easier said than done);
- Redistribute the wealth.
- 9-1-1 change to one single service. Centralized.
- Combine school districts - no local control
- Share services to save money,
- Progressive business wanted only, state-run health care.
- Toll study - both oppose it. Electronic tolling a non-starter.
Bambi alarmed. "Rapid fire round" questions - who has been the best Governor in last 30 years? Ganim picks Bill O'Neill, Lamont picks...LOWELL WEICKER. We know what that means...
WINNER IN PRIMARY
NOW THAT IS INTERESTING
Endorsed by National Review for GOP nomination for Lt. Gov
NOT IN WESTON'S CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT BUT...WINNER (r)
Democrats contest in 5th District after Rep. Espy does not run...GOP also in Primary Contest.
PETITIONING CANDIDATE: https://ctmirror.org/2018/07/27/griebel-pitches-pilot-toll-plan-anti-toll-petition-drive-stalls/
Suggests H.O.V. lane study first...
MINOR PARTY ACTION
Green Party names its candidate for AG: https://www.newhavenindependent.org/index.php/archives/entry/peter_goselin/
BOTH DEBATES ON CT-N
We find this very interesting to see the difference when you have two candidates - a real debate (i.e. Lincoln-Douglass, Kennedy-Nixon) or five (5).
WATCH ON CT-N: http://www.ctn.state.ct.us/ctnplayer.asp?odID=15447
OPENING REMARKS: Better service at less cost; Two CTs - his "Second Chance" to make one CT
CLOSING REMARKS: "I'll make the tough decisions" says Lamont; "One CT" - Ganim closer.
Now we know why Joe Ganim was elected and re-elected. Opioids final question: Pharmaceutical lawsuit - legalize MJ - etc.
DEMOCRATS DEBATE FOR GOVERNOR AT CT REALTORS: Meanwhile, "forum" in New Haven included the 2nd and 4th GOP candidates below here plus the 2 Democrats.
Will Democrats face a Malloy test? Will CT problems take a back seat to Trump-bashing? Probably a sure thing they'll all agree! Statements made - by audience and candidates,in Stratford: http://www.ctn.state.ct.us/ctnplayer.asp?odID=15416
Notice who was not on stage...the winning candidate!
WATCH ON YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56hMDwTaTW8
REPUBLICAN DEBATE FOR GOVERNOR AT CT REALTORS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56hMDwTaTW8
We watched it and thought they all did well. Previous to the weekend (16th, 17th of June) we were under the impression that they didn't say anything - but they DID!!!
GOP ONLY: https://ctmirror.org/2018/06/11/cordial-gop-debate-malloy-mentioned/
AT REAL ESTATE-SPONSORED EVENT FOR PRIMARY DEBATES
At right, COURANT headlines "Trump" - to New Haven Independent coverage headline on Sanctuary Cities, via CTNEWSJUNKIE...
Interesting rules...and by the way, we didn't think the "Trump" test question was a bit silly. Do you think they'll ask the same question of the Democrats?
CANDIDATE FORUM: Click on black & white graphic for full color blow up (interviews here)
Who qualified? Only those who received at least 15% of their Party's convention vote for Governor
University of Hartford Rell Center Forum:
"A Job Like No Other: Interviews with Republican and Democratic Candidates for Governor of Connecticut"
Want to see an interview with candidates for Governor who qualified for ballot as of the results of Conventions. Watch this Forum in full here: http://www.ctn.state.ct.us/ctnplayer.asp?odID=15367
EARLY WESTON RESULTS: Democrats didn't like Ganim and GOP went for Boughton.
PRIMARY BALLOTS: If ever there was a choice, both Parties did the right thing...
How many of these candidates have you heard of before the PRIMARY? Democrats for A.G. 2-1 for legalizing pot. Vote Tuesday, August 14, 2018 at W.M.S. Gym, 6am-8pm
INDEPENDENT PARTY ENDORSEMENTS STAND - 2018 ELECTION: No changes, asks the Sec'y of the State;
106th House District.
CLICK TO FIND WHO WON!!!
ABOVE THE "SHAPE" OF THE AUGUST 14, 2018 BALLOTS (CLICK TO ENLARGE TO DRAFT REAL THING).
Just catching you up on what the ballot may look like...democracy is sometimes a three-ring circus.
FROM SEC'Y OF THE STATE: Petitioning candidates must turn in 7500 signatures from voters - not just Party voters - that are OK'd by her office.
In Stamford: One for Legalizing recreational pot; contest for who will be toughest on Donald Trump.
A P I C T U R E W O R T H 1 0 0 0 W O R D S . . . A C R O S S T H E P O N D .
AUGUST 14th IS PRIMARY ELECTION
G O V E R N O R
- QUESTION: How many Weston Republicans voted in 2014 Party Primary? ANSWER: 300 plus.
- 2012 statistics (%) for Primaries? Presidential Election year.
- How about 2016? Presidential Election year.
Democrats contest (1 petitioning) on Primary Ballot Aug. 14; 2 petitioning approved by Sec'y of the State of total of 5 candidates for Governor in GOP.
D O W N B A L L O T c o n t e s t s
Nominated LT GOV candidates; and we think we heard a Treasurer candidate (D) didn't June 20th.
(L) - qualifies for C.E.P. $$; challenger for LT GOV as a Democrat - story about protests against ICE in Hartford.
Article about Democrat LTGOV race here: https://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/archives/entry/20180716_bysiewicz_touts_support_from_local_elected_officials/
What's the process? https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/sots/ElectionServices/Misc/2018-ED-607-Instruction-Page-for-Nominating-Petition-11-6-2018.pdf?la=en
"We're not an ATM" at Citizen's Election Program
Maybe there won't be time to spend the $$ by the time August 14th rolls around? One C.E.P. applicant, GOP, (AG candidate) needs the cash NOW!!!
One Gubernatorial candidate application for C.E.P. $$ being investigated.
We checked in with the Town Clerk to see if Weston was a hot town for petitioning...
CONNECTICUT PRIMARY SEASON - WHO VOTES IN PRIMARIES FOR THE MOST PART?
Predict Weston turnout in August Primaries:
- Those "D" and "R" registered voters who don't leave town.
- Those who vote absentee...registered Democrat and Republican voters only.
- By getting an absentee ballot application, beginning July 24th in Town Hall. This is a two-step process so it isn't easy to complete.
- Democrat (2279) & Republican (1710) voters in town as of April. 2018;
- Turnout in Referendum on the budget: 634
- Turnout for Dog Park adjourned Special Town Meeting: 1,686
NOT ELIGIBLE: "Oz" petitioning to November ballot. Mayor Ganim (and a few more GOP) too - or is Mayor Ganim doing both Primary as well as November ballot?
FORUM for Gubernatorial candidates qualifying for the ballot at Party Conventions
And by the way, we would swear that an article "disappeared" from our favorite website when
FYI - GOP has Primary Aug. 14th for U.S. Senate, we think...but we won't know until July 24th for sure about anything!
The Aspetuck News has an excellent rundown, albeit spell check missed "Comptroller" and instead used "controller" on July 17, 2018 about the ballot: https://aspetuck.news/lead-news/weston-easton-redding-voters-face-decisions-in-upcoming-primaries-107477
There appears to be the following contest menu - office greyed in are uncontested by Parties - but there could be other non-Major Party candidates petitioning to get on the ballot Nov. 6.
A U G U S T 1 4 P R I M A R I E S
Click above left to get info on when absentee ballots are available!
DEMOCRATIC TICKET PRIMARIES as of May 30th, candidates attempting to petition onto the Aug. 14 Dem. ballot.
LT. GOV (2-way)
How another is doing it: https://ctmirror.org/2018/06/04/stefanowski-gets-closer-less-traveled-path-gop-primary/
REPUBLICAN TICKET PRIMARIES as of May 30th, multiple candidates attempting to petition onto the Aug. 14 G.O.P. ballot.
U.S. Senate (2-way)
GOV. (3-way contest)
LT. GOV. (3-way contest)
A.G. (2-way contest)
Treasurer (2-way contest)
Comptroller (if another candidate is successful in petitioning).
Bridge for only 3 players, with no bidding. You go down a lot. Like being a State-wide Republican candidate in Connecticut.
Best review of this convention: http://www.courant.com/opinion/hc-op-rennie-dems-from-convention-to-primary-20180520-story.html#nws=true
LAMONT GETS THE NOMINATION FOR GOVERNOR - NO PRIMARY OR PETITIONING OPPOSITION UNLESS GANIM COLLECTS SIGNATURES...
From Ken Dixon (CT POST): "...Balloting for the two gubernatorial hopefuls was delayed until afternoon by a human-driven computer glitch, in which more votes were cast that there were eligible delegates, some of whom failed to register for their credentials before submitting their choices for secretary of the state." But there are no problems with voter fraud, of course.
A.G. Primary for Democrats above.
PRIMARIES FOR: Lt. Gov.; potential petitioning candidate for Governor; no contests for incumbent Comptroller, Sec'y of the State. Three-way contests in these 2 - Treasurer and A.G.
Sen. Murphy renominated. and reminding Democrats "why they are Democrats" as the headline reads!.
4th Congressional District LWVCT/region's Leagues October 21, 2018 in Wilton - report
4th Congressional District Debate
Jim Himes to run against President Trump not his opponent Harry Arora.
Diversity in CT Dems asks State Senator?
Taking voter turnout for granted, some might ask, and others might say "not so fast."
NUMBER TWO TRIES HARDER
Republican almost earning the nomination has a modest proposal - every week until the Primary August 14th
COURANT FROM THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION
Who votes in Primaries?
One Gubernatorial candidate may have the odds in his favor (not pictured). He has checked to see who has voted in Primaries previously we think.- check your mail box.
For Governor - Mayor Mark wins - Primary August. 14th. Sec'y of the State candidate Chapman
There will be a Republican Primary in August for almost everything...there are candidates out there trying to petition on to the August ballot including someone who knows what an algorithm is.
- Sec'y of the State candidate not contested - Susan Chapman...
- Primary for U.S. Senate seat;
- Congressional races in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th uncontested at GOP convention - according to COURANT - 5th contested and there will be a Primary.
- Third round Mayor Mark edges past his rivals, above 50% of delegates - and earns a chance to run in perhaps a 5-way GOP Primary August 14th - maybe more in the mix, too.
- Sen. Markley wins Lt. Gov. nomination, Erin Stewart and Jayme Stevenson both gain Convention % to primary.
NEXT WEEK IN HARTFORD FOR MAJORITY PARTY - DESTITUTE OF IDEAS TO BAIL OUT THE STATE?
Democrats at the XL Center? If so, arguably a location more structurally sound than the economic condition of the State of Connecticut.
NOT EXACTLY NEWS...http://ctbythenumbers.info/2018/08/27/business-association-launches-campaign-urging-candidates-to-fix-connecticut/
S.E.E.C. FINES FROM 2016: https://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/archives/entry/20180821_election_regulators_close_2016_case_involving_trump/
SET UP FOR PRIMARY: https://www.courthousenews.com/wild-connecticut-primary-season-enters-final-stretch/
CAUCUS NEWS - "Voter Security Party" - example in the 5th Congressional District: http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/archives/entry/20180514_democrats_in_the_5th_go_with/
POST-Convention run up to Primaries:
Definitely click above to get full story - it is aimed for the concept that 169 towns are the problem and cities are too small.
Republican Debate: http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-republican-debate-west-haven-20180221-story.html
Republican Debate: http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/archives/entry/2018221_republicans_take_debate_stage_with_gun_control_in_headlines/
Toni Boucher is always someone I respect and would want on my side - she is a fighter and gives her all serving her constituents.
CT DEMS MORPHING INTO SEIU, AFSCME, CEA/AFT.
Senator Slossberg to retire.
NEW HAVEN MAYOR (FORMERLY CT LEGISLATOR) PURGE TALK - new face of Dems (second from the left)
UPDATE: Indeed there appears to be one in shoreline towns - Rep. Reed, Sen. Kennedy, Sen Slossberg not running. Rep. Fleischmann being primaried in West Hartford - Sen. Doyle not running for reelection.
A NARROW FRAME OF REFERENCE
Some House Dems think CT actually had "cities." Connecticut in totality is more like "one plus" boroughs of NYC (JMO)
UNAFFILIATED GOVERNOR CANDIDATE (former Republican) WITH UNAFFILIATED LT GOV CANDIDATE (former Democrat)
Reported that candidacy was imminent last week when he retired from Metro Hartford Alliance job, Oz has roots back to (aka CT21) - and Economics/Land Use group here:
Well, its nice to know that all the work and consultant $$ that went into this is be4ing dusted off. Story in full: https://ctmirror.org/2017/12/19/oz-griebel-picks-sandy-hook-activist-as-running-mate/
FIRST STATEWIDE SURVEY: Half and half.
We are not surprised that after two years Mayor Bronin had had enough...but being Governor? Out of the frying pan...as the saying goes.
HE WOULD HAVE SAID HE WAS "THROWING HIS HAT IN THE RING" BUT THAT IS A BAD REMINDER TO DANBURY, NORWALK AND CT INDUSTRY AS A WHOLE.
AETNA (C) LIKE THE STATE OF CONNECTICUT'S FISCAL SITUATION (R)
Answer: They'll both disappear under the waves in five years, or the end of the first term of Governor Bronin. "Flexible" space. - 21st century concept to early 20th Century icon.
GOVERNOR & LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR NOT RUNNING; A.G. AS WELL.
Some whose careers we've followed are running for Governor and LT. GOV. ..NOW INTERESTED IN A.G. OFFICIALLY? GOVERNOR'S CLONE NO LONGER IN THE MIX. Oz running independently? And senior citizen Ned!
Democrats and Republican, et al. My choice; Dan Drew out (running mate pictured). Party Conventions coming up; AG endorses Lamont: http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/archives/entry/20180326_jepsen_goes_all_in_for_lamont/
ATTORNEY GENERAL JEPSEN NOT RUNNING FOR RE-ELECTION: ENDORSES NED LAMONT FOR GOVERNOR
Here's a lawyer joke: How many members of an American State General Assembly might aspire to be Attorney General? Answer: It depends . How about for AG in Connecticut?
Ambitious politicians who didn't win nomination or ticket to Primanies...
are looking to advance up the ladder eventually to the bench, perhaps.
These lawyers just want to run, never mind for which office. AG hopeful from GOP news!!! The latest: AG DEM long shot...out.
THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Reports on who else is running for what...musical "chairs" or benches.
T H E E L E P H A N T I N T H E R O O M . . . DEMOCRATS THROWING THE ELECTION AGAINST THE WALL TO SEE WHAT STICKS?
Impeachment before January 2019?
Inquiring minds assumes this is the Democrat playbook:
We don't think this is a winning plan for a number of reasons.
- Win the Majority in the House in 2018,
- Impeach the President and then...
- Expect Donald Trump to resign rather than be convicted in a Senate trial where you need 2/3 vote to do so.
SOME JOKES ARE IRONY. OTHERS FALL ON DEAF EARS. "1984" IS FINALLY HERE.
The summer vacation is drawing to a close and in CT it is now officially HOT AIR season until Nov. 6 - then what?
"Top of ticket" for Major Parties based upon some people's preferences?
WHO COULD POSSIBLY REPLACE CURRENT GOV?
Two guys with blue ties, part their hair on opposite sides...artistic license.
"How are Lowell Weicker and Ned Lamont alike?"
- Not that they are both from Greenwich when they ran for Governor, although that is true.
- ANS.: Rather that in his first ad, candidate Lamont says he will only serve one term.
- So vote for Ned. He and a Democrat majority in the Legislature will do what again? Oh, Weicker already created the income tax. Albeit not as redistributive in design as some might like.
- Why else to vote for Ned? He won't take any salary. He says he won't use an official limo. His slogan? "Make Connecticut Rich Again."
I swear we don't compare notes: http://www.courant.com/opinion/hc-op-mcenroe-money-intrigue-ct-primary-20180621-story.html#nws=true
"THE TWO CONNECTICUTS" - Remember that reference to CT education?
This is the best match up in General Election Nov. 6th - it will save the Citizen's Election Program a bundle - since both are self-funded candidates and particulary of interest to COURANT columnist..
THE "I DIDN'T KNOW" DEFENSE AT IT AGAIN. AND SIMILARITIES DRAW TO 2016...
POLITICS IS A RUNNING GAME (AS IN "ALL ABOARD!" CANDIDACY PHRASE AND OTHER WORD PLAY)
2018 CT: Based upon Transit Oriented Development project scale (i.e. bus, minor station) a shrinking vision? How about Bill Gates' dynamic idea?
- Vote for me because I didn't take away your I.R.S. deduction for local property tax/income tax/donations, etc. (Federal office)
- Vote for me because Donald Trump is President and I am not
- Vote for me because I'm not Dan Malloy
- Vote for me because I'm provide hand warmers to Fastrak bus users
- Vote for me because TOD in East Norwalk is a joke - not a mainline station to develop commercial development
- Vote for me because I'll raise taxes on the "wealthy (Fairfield County only)" (Democrats) or I'll re-open teacher's and state union contracts if a new AG says it is legal to do so (Republicans)
- Ideas from Transportation Finance Panel - a blast from the past! Link is to topic - most recent developments at the top.
Jon Lender: Legislators Reap Thousands In State Mileage Payments Even If They Don't Drive
Our comment: Government is not a business per se... http://www.courant.com/politics/government-watch/hc-pol-lender-legislators-mileage-payments-20181025-story.html
Joseph Stiglitz his favorite economist
Right-wing conspiracy or more "fake news" algorithms from Google?
INQUIRING MINDS WANT TO KNOW WHO'S COOKING THE BOOKS HERE:
Latest research-survey from purported NYU entity doesn't come up on a Google search...
Candidate "choice" in 2018: https://ctmirror.org/2018/10/25/five-things-know-stefanowskis-plans-public-schools-elected-governor/
Above from North Carolina
HOW TO MAKE THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE AN ISSUE
I REMEMBER WHEN THIS HAPPENED...
ALL IN THE FAMILY
Is this an "off year" for U.S. Senate? Nope. Sen. Murphy running.
1st District Congressman's brother above (no news, just a nice graphic)..
MORE ALL IN THE FAMILY NEWS
Reminding us more of reconstruction. "Stamford: The City That Works" post Civil War politics - it works if you are related: https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/local/article/Stamford-rep-shifts-parties-to-challenge-13056437.php
What are the odds in Las Vegas for...
Trump Impeachment? Conviction by the Senate...this year? How about sports betting?
ENDORSES (AS WE HEARD IT) ENFORCEMENT OF FREE SPEECH LIMITATIONS
In the last question after State Bonding Commission Meeting late 2017, Governor Malloy shows what he will be doing in his last year in office.
SPECIAL MEETING OF STATE BOND COMMISSION: Thursday, September 20, 2018.
So what's the story?
Since Hartford is no longer allowed to increase its debt, the State of CT will do it for them and by the way...what about CT bond cap?
Thanks for the $$ and what is the general approach to economic development.
LAST BOND COMMISSION MEETING BEFORE NOV. 6
SPECIAL STATE BOND COMMISSION COMING CLOSE TO BOND CAP? QUESTION NOT ANSWERED.